Browsing by Author "Supervised by Dr. Naeem ur Rehman Khattak"
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Item Association Among Fertility Behaviour in Women Using Various Contraceptive Methods (A Case Study of Pakistan)(Department of Economics, University of Peshawar. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, 1998-08) Ijaz Majid; Supervised by Dr. Naeem ur Rehman KhattakThe data collected by the National Institute of Population Studies, Islamabad in Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey, 1990-91 was analysed and investigated in this study. The data was in the computer base of the Institute consisting of 6,611 eligible women. The main emphasis ofthe data was on, background characteristics, reproductive history, knowledge and use of contraception, pregnancy and breast feeding, vaccinations and the health of children, marriages, family size preferences and husbands background. The main objective of this study was to_ investigate statistical methods, which can be used. for the analysis of such data, so as to identify various variables that can affect the fertility pattern of the women using various types of contraceptive methods. This in turn will lead to identify variations among different methods of contraception that will have an effective control on the fertility of a woman. For this purpose, different methods of analysis previously being used and recommendedin the literature were studied and new methods were developed for analysis of this data so as to identify the variables of importance. Since the main purpose of the study was to investigate an association amongthe Fertility Behaviour in Women using different methods of Contraception/fertility regulation methods. The initial part of the study contained an elementary data analysis of the data. This was done to find out the a sources of variation in the data, and to investigate the important variables affecting the fertility behaviour of the women. The current trend of rapid population growth in Pakistan calls for serious thinking and action. If it is allowed to continue with the prevailing growth rate, it will adversely effect the socio-economic development of the country as with the current rate we are heading towards what is called population bomb. If it explodes, it would devastate the economic and social fabric of our country. Hence,it is the time that these important variables effecting the fertility behaviour of a woman should be taken care off. In this study along with simple analysis of cross tabulation and summary statistics computed, regression analysis was also used. The method of regression analysis was used in two steps. First, simple regression models were analysed. Second, in order to see the effect of a variable on the dependent variable, new regression models were formulated and analysed. This method helped us in pinpointing the important variables and finally developing a model of choice. Further Analysis of Variance was used to see the overall significance of regression models. The important variables as identified in the present study were age of the respondent, education,living number of children, family planning practices and attitudes, spousal communication and husbands level of education etc. Finally one o fthe major conclusions derived from the present study wasthat there was a strong association among the fertility behavior of the women using various contraceptive methods and hence its effects on the numberf born. Besides this, the study indicated that modern contraceptive methods are more effective as compared to traditional methods.Item Economic Efficiency of the Agrarian Structure in the North West Frontier Province of Pakistan An Econometric Analysis(Department of Economics, University of Peshawar. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, 1999-04) Jehanzeb; Supervised by Dr. Naeem ur Rehman KhattakThe study entitled “Economic Efficiency of the Agrarian Structure in the North West Frontier Province of Pakistan” is exclusively based on primarily data collected from 200 farmers in NWFP, during 1997-98. The farmers have been selected randomly through the stratified Sampling procedure. For analysis, the sampled farmers are grouped on the basis offarm characteristics such as owners, owner-cum-tenant and tenants on one hand, and small and large farmers on the other. The core objective ofthe study is to quantify the economic efficiency of the agrarian structure in NWFP. In the empirical analysis various econometric techniques have beenused. This included the use of Translog Profit function, Lorenze Curve, Gini Coefficient, Cobb-Douglas Production Function and Linear Programming, etc. Beside these, the Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC) Net Present Value (NPV), Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of various agricultural activities are also computed. The structural differences between different types of farms are determined with the help of Chow-Fratio. The results obtained from various statistical and econometric applications are coherent with the economic theory and of great help for diagnosing the agrarian structure of NWFP. Specifically, it has been discovered that the agrarian structure is inefficient mainly because of the skeweddistribution of operational holdings, difference in farm sizes and level of mechanization, land fragmentation, paucity of irrigation water and provision of creditfacilities. The analysis suggested that the level of inefficiency can be reduced to a greater extent by eliminating disparities of operational holdings. Significant reformative approachof land reform is proposed towards this end. The adoption of mechanization and provision of credit extension canalso help to rebate this inefficiency.Item FOREIGN CAPITAL INFLOWS AND ITS IMPACT ON MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES IN PAKISTAN 1981-2010(Department of Economics, University of Peshawar. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, 2010) Safia Gul; Supervised by Dr. Naeem ur Rehman KhattakForeign capital inflows (FCI) help under-developing countries to cover the gap of twin deficits in current and capital accounts by increasing the size of their Gross Domestic Products (GDP), improving the quality and quantity of technological domestic means of production, creation of employment, transformation of industrial base for exports orientation and imports substitution to gain favorable Terms of Trade (TOT) and Balance of Payments (BOP) position by changing the composition of current and capital accounts. Pakistan has strong potential if the determinants involved in the transformation of the agrarian structure of the economy to mechanized industrialization improve to induce more foreign investors in capital intensive projects by creating financial co-relation with domestic investors as the country has low access in the international resource markets of invisible items. Foreign Inflows of portfolio investments direct enhances foreign exchange reserves. Aim of this study to explain various factors involved to have more FCI and its impact on macroeconomic indicators like, Growth, Domestic Investment, Inflation and Trade Balance. Trend and Regression Analysis applied to evaluate thirty years secondary data collected from various sources. This Study focused on two Determinants of FCI i.e. 'Foreign Direct Investment' (FDI) and 'Foreign Portfolio Investment' (FPI). For checking interdependency of variables in six separate models are specified taking different macro-economic variables. Before analyzing the Time-Series data, Augmented Ducky Fuller test (ADFT) used to check stationarity of the data of those variables in models. For checking Non-Stationary data by Unit-Root showed that all the variables are not stationary at level but stationary at the first difference. For the analysis of variation in variables and finding long-run relationship, "Johansen’s Co-integration-Test” applied. For detection of short-run impacts of FCI on the selected variables in models "Vector-Error-Correction-Model" (VECM) used. Moreover, for examination of the inter relationship in the FCI with economic growth, domestic investment, consumption and inflation; Granger Causality Test (GCT) applied. For deriving the results, SPSS and E-views utilized. Major findings of the study showed that GDP growth rate positively and significantly affects (0.147) FCI and negatively affected (-0.033) by the inflation rate in the country. FCI affected positively (0.195) by the interest rate. Exchange rate is positively related (0.027) to the FCI. Domestic investment affects positively (0.545) FCI. GDP growth rate positively affects (0.157) FDI. FDI negatively affected (-0.001) by the inflation rate of the country. FDI is affected positively (0.015) by the interest rate of the country. Exchange rate positively related (0.030) FDI. Domestic investment affects positively (0.295) FDI. Exports affect FCI positively (0.008). GDP growth rate positively affected (1.083) by FDI in the country. GDP growth rate positively affected (0.021) by the persistent rise in the general price level (inflation) of economy. Gross-Domestic-Product (GDP) growth rate affected negatively (-0.080) by the interest rate of the country. FDI positively affects (1.479) the domestic investment of the country. Domestic investment positively affected (0.284) by FCIs. Inflation rate is positively affected (0.157) by the foreign direct investment to the country. FCI affect the inflation rate positively (0.467). FCIs affect the balance of trade negatively (-0.127). The coefficient is significant at 5% levels of significance. Balance of trade positively affected (0.127) by the GDP growth rate of the country. The balance of trade affected positively (0.237) by the relative prices of imports. Balance of trade negatively affected (-0.132) by the relative prices of exports. Foreign exchange reserves and exchange rate affects the balance of trade negatively. Similarly, as the currency depreciates, the exports become less expensive and hence the demand for exports increases in the international markets. Increase in exports lead to improve balance of trade. Incentives should be given to domestic investors to boost GDP and exports. The study revealed that inflation rate; imports volume affects the FCI negatively and has insignificant impact. So the government should control inflation through monetary/fiscal policy and reduce the imports of un-necessary items through restrictions or imports substitution and export orientation.Item IMPACT OF MICRO FINANCE ON WOMEN EMPOWERMENT: A CASE STUDY OF SELECTED DISTRICTS OF KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA(Department of Economics, University of Peshawar. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, 2014-04) Syed Nabahat; Supervised by Dr. Naeem ur Rehman KhattakFrom the time of its birth Pakistan is facing turmoil and deprivation in all aspects of life, keeping it from coming at par with the rest of the world. For over six decades Pakistan has made little progress due to the unfair division of resources and gender discrimination. The burden of this scantiness was put intensely on the women folk. Women play a vital role in domestic functions. Their role should be enhanced by empowering them financially. Microfinance has been found as a main antidote to empower women and eradicate poverty. The focus of the study has been on micro-credit, given to the poor women to help them to initiate business, in order to increase their income which in the long run will empower them. Main objectives of the study were to determine the impact of microfinance on the self confidence and decision making power of women in the study area. For this purpose a sample of 235 women who had taken credit from the two major microfinance institutions National Rural Support Program (NRSP) and Sarhad Rural Support Program (SRSP) were randomly selected from three districts (Peshawar, Mardan, Swabi) of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Information regarding demography and other variables were collected through structured questionnaire. In order to understand the complexity of the phenomenon of women empowerment, a structured interview schedule was also conducted. Zifferent statistical instruments i.e. descriptive analyses, bar charts, bivariate and multivariate analyses were employed to present the information scientifically, and to build up the relationship between the various explanatory variables and dependent variable. The analysis specifies that the response about joining microfinance was very encouraging. Beneficiaries of microfinance felt positive influence of microfinance on their level of self-confidence, family life, husband and wife relations, respect from in-laws, and decrease in household violence. Their decision making ability regarding income and expenditure, children education and health, had also increased. Women’s own perception after joining microfinance was also very positive. The study further concludes that personal and socio-political empowerment of women is greater in district Peshawar, while their economic empowerment is greater in district Swabi. Similarly the decision making ability of women is greater in district Mardan. It is suggested that the process of available credit should be made easier and outreach of microfinance sector should be expanded to other far-flung areas of the country.Item THE ROLE OF HUMAN CAPITAL IN ECONOMIC GROWTH OF PAKISTAN (1971-2008)(Department of Economics, University of Peshawar. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, 2012) Jangraiz Khan; Supervised by Dr. Naeem ur Rehman KhattakPositive economic growth has always been the core objective of economic policies across the world. The economists and policy makers have always been engaged in digging out the determinants of economic growth. In 1960’s, the concepts of health, consumption and education were introduced in economic growth studies, which led to addition of the term, “human capital” in determinants of economic growth. In 1980’s, human capital was formally introduced in economic growth literature and since then, it became an integral component of economic growth. The present study aims at finding-out the role of human capital in economic growth of Pakistan during the period 1971-2008. Education, health, and Research and Development (R&D) have been used as measures for human capital. An attempt has also been made in this study to find the impact of institutions on human capital and thus, its indirect contribution to economic growth. The study in hand, also strived to explore the impact of human capital on physical capital accumulation and labour force participation. Likewise, the contribution of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) has also been calculated in presence of education, health and R&D separately. The calculations of TFP have been revised by taking different shares of factors inputs and time intervals. The contribution of TFP in Pakistan has been compared with seven South Asian countries. The study has used secondary data for analysis, which has been taken from different national and international organization. Growth Accounting Method (GAM) has been used to calculate TFP. The econometric techniques used for analysis are Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Two Stage Least Squares, Cointegration and Granger Causality test. The results of the study show that TFP contribute 38.47 % to GDP per capita, when education is used as a measure for human capital. This contribution increases to 47.74%, when education is replaced by health and fell to 18.27% with R&D as measure of human capital in TFP model. The contribution of TFP increases irrespective of measure of human capital, when minimum share of capital is used. It increases to 46.72%, 57.08% and 24.14% in case of education, health and R&D respectively. The results of economic growth model, obtained through the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) show that education, health and R&D positively affected economic growth of Pakistan during the study period. Health and R&D remained statistically significant while education remained insignificant. The results of simultaneous equations model show that Education, health, R&D and labour are significant determinants of economic growth in Pakistan. The quality as well as quantity of educational institutions and Real GDP per capita appeared as significant determinants of education in Pakistan. The results further show that education and quality of health institutions are significant factors for health in Pakistan. Similarly, educational institutions and Real GDP per capita appeared as major and significant determinants of R&D during the study period. In the same way, R&D, health and education positively affected physical capital in Pakistan. The Cointegration test results show that education, health and R&D affected economic growth in long run in Pakistan during 1971-2008. The equations for education and health also showed the existence of cointegrating equation, which indicates the existence of long run relationship among the variables. Real GDP per capita, education, quality and quantity of educational institutions affect R&D, while human capital, labour force and economic growth affect physical capital in the long run. Similarly, human capital in form of education, health and R&D emerged as a macro determinant of labour force participation. The Granger Causality Test shows some important uni-directional relationships among the variables of the study. The findings of the study suggest TFP to be an important determinant of economic growth in Pakistan, hence, the determinants of TFP needs to be explored. Education should be kept on top priority and resource allocation to education should be increased. It is strongly recommended to enhance investment in health and R&D to put the economy on path of sustained growth. Labour in Pakistan positively affect economic growth, therefore to increase the productivity of labour, it should be equipped with appropriate skills.Item The Role of Tourism in the Economic Development of Pakistan A Case Study of Northern Areas(1998) Muhammad Bilal Malick; Supervised by Dr. Naeem ur Rehman KhattakThe present study, conducted with main focus on Northern Areas, was designed to: inquire into the state of tourism potentials; assess its socio-economic impact; and draw guidelines for minimisation of its adverse and maximization of beneficial impacts in future. The study is addressed to, but not mainlyfocused on, hypotheses that: (i) there is a positive relationship between tourism and economic development; (ii) the socio-culturalfactors and tourism are not necessarily inversely related; (iii) the intensity ofsocial, economic, environmental, and other impacts oftourism moves in sympathy with the level oftourists inflow expressed asproportionoflocal population in tourist receiving area. MAIN FINDINGS: The study, on the whole, brings out thefact that tourism has hadpositive impact on project area and that these promise to grow deeper and wider as tourism grows. Main findings in this respects are as follows: • Most of the tourists were domestic; inflow of foreign tourists is, however, positively upward. • Some 60% of tourists were males; majority belonged to 16-30 years age group; as many as 94% were educated; 88% visited the project area for the first time; 50% spent 4-8 nights in the project area. • The single largest category (35%) of tourists comprised of students/teachers, followed by government employees (31%), commercial employees (17%) and businessmen (3%). • Most tourists carried with them Rs. 8,000-10,000 per headfor visit to the Northern Areas. Majority of them spent around Rs. 300-400 per day per head. • The single largest number of local tourists came from NWFP (45%), followed by Punjab (41%), while among the foreign tourists the corresponding position is held by England (27.3%), followed by Germany (20.4%). •Tourism has positively affected agricultural sector of the economy. Total operated area under cultivation increased by 28% during last 10 years. Overall production ofcrops especiallyfruits increased by 782%; vegetables 510%; fodder crops 650%; wheat 31%; and maize 20%. Land management practices have improved too. Farmers cultivate all crops more scientifically than before. Use of mechanization on farms has increased nearlysix-folds. Average income from agricultural sector has increased from Rs. 15,00020,000 per annum in 1984, to Rs. 30,000-40,000 per annum in 1994. •Although agricultural sector is still the main provider ofjobs considerable expansion has taken place in off-farm employment and tourism development has made a major contribution in this respect.j •There were no reports of women engaged in tourism sector. However, they are now getting better job opportunities in health and education sector comparedto ten years before. •The project area has registered considerable improvement in infrastructure during 1984-94. There has been much expansion in banking (92%), communication facilities (203%) schools (316%), health facilities (121%), electricity (233%), sanitation (275%), water (103%), roads (83%) and housing (144%) during last ten years. These developments have facilitated tourism and are also to an important extent the outcome of tourism development policy of the government. •Mobility of local people has also increased. Visits tofamily andfriends have increased by 125%, visiting more places by 788% and utilization of modern vehicles by 362% during 1984-94. •Temporary and permanent out migration of local people has come down by 28% and47% respectively after 1984. However, temporary migration of local people to urban centers, within project area, forjob/business has increased by 153% and temporary inflow of outside people to project area for job/business has increased by 267% in last 10 years. •Tourism has had very little adverse impact on the level ofcorruption, dignity ofpeople, and goodwill towards foreigners in the area. Local controls are foundstill effective. • Some concern isfound among the locals as well as tourists about increase in deforestation, soil erosion and excessive hunting of the wild life in the area. The project area cannot withstandflow of mass tourism, overcrowding and excessive use ofplaces for recreation. •Tourism promotion has induced changes in consumption behaviour of the local population, with regard to certain types ofbeverages, vegetables, dairy products, andfashion accessories etc. The average consumption expenditure of sample family has gone up from Rs. 20,000-30,000 per annum to Rs.30,000-40,000 per annumin last ten years. • Rise in local people’s income and employmentlevel, to which tourism has made a good contribution, increase in their mobility, and their growing contacts with tourists from more developed regions of Pakistan, as well as foreign countries, have had a positive impact on their attitude towards, and perception of, modern education, modern medical practices (allopathic treatment) in preference to old ones, housing, sanitation etc. The quality of life has, thus on the whole, been improving due to these positive influences. CONCLUSIONS: Several important conclusions emergefromthis study’s findings on socio-economic impacts of tourism in the context of Pakistan in general and Northern Areas in particular. These conclusions are stated below with reference to the study’s hypotheses. I) Thereis a positive relationship between tourism and economic development. The study confirms this hypothesis. In the particular case ofNorthern Areas, tourism has proved to be one ofmajor catalysts ofinitiation and acceleration of development process, and this role will grow with further growth of tourism. All sectors of the project area’s economypresent positive readings. The farm sector has experienced significant expansionbothvertically and horizontally. Visibility ofnon-farm sector’s expansion is even greater. Thus, all told, a Significant rise in income and employment has taken place in the project area, more goods and services are available now than before, consumption patterns are changing, and the local economyis on the whole muchbetter placed than a decade ago. Thus, tourism has made a significant contribution to the area’s economy. II) The socio culturalfactors and tourism are not necessarily inversely related. The study'sfindings confirmthis hypothesis, but with reservations. In the particular context of the project area, little or no impact on the area’s overall social and cultural environments has been caused bytourists inflow yet. Some adverse impacts, on negligible scale, have been observed in localities which receive tourists in a relatively large number — and these are all urbanlocalities. But local institutions are still strong enoughto counter the negative impacts. The project area is not yet exposed to negative impacts in this sphere, because the tourists are relatively small in number. But, the hazards are bound to grow as tourists’ number relative to local population increases. Appropriate planning can, however, help minimize these hazards. III) The intensity of social, economic, environmental, and other impacts of tourism moves in sympathy with the level oftourists inflow expressed as proportion of local population in tourist receiving area. This hypothesis is confirmed by the present study. Infact this conclusion is embodied in hypotheses as discussed above. Tourism has begun positively impacting the project area’s economy. The strength of impacts is presently low, but it will increase with tourists inflow, repeat visits, and increase in stay. The adverse impacts are lowor negligible presently — such as erosion ofsocial values, sexual immorality, crimes, conspicuous consumption, etc. A definite positive association betweenthese negative impacts and level of tourists inflow is observable. Appropriate planning can, however, help minimize the same. Thus, to conclude, the above hypothesis in duly verified by the study’sfindings. Summing up the aforestated three inter-linked conclusions, it is concluded that tourism, if properly planned and kept within tourists receiving area’s tourists carrying capacity, performs the role of catalyst of development. It contributes positively to initiation and acceleration ofthe process ofdevelopmentandinits turn receives impetusfrom the same i.e; development. Therefore, tourism industry should be an integral component of development plans for areas that have tourists attractions, such as the Northern Areas.Item Trade Liberalization, Economic Growth and Poverty Alleviation: A Case Study of Selected South Asian Countries(Department of Economics, University of Peshawar. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, 2014-11) Waqar-Un-Nisa; Supervised by Dr. Naeem ur Rehman KhattakWTO (World Trade Organization) that replaced GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade), claims speedy growth and reduction of poverty through greater trade expansion. This study evaluates the existence and impact of relationship between trade liberalization, economic growth and poverty in the context of selected South Asian countries namely Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan and Maldives. Time series and cross sectional data is pooled and divided into two sub periods as pre liberalization (1960-1980) and post liberalization period (1981-2011) to compare the relationship of trade with growth and poverty between the two periods. GLS technique is used with countries’ Fixed and Random Effect Models. Variables are trade openness, average income growth, poverty, income inequality, unemployment, infrastructure development (transport and communication sector development) government consumption, investment, life expectancy at birth, literacy ratio, secondary school enrolment ratio, skilled labor, inflation rate, and population growth. First, trade openness along with other variables is estimated to see its impact over growth and then trade openness and growth along with other variables are estimated to see their impact over poverty of the South Asian region during both periods. Results show in the pre liberalization period an insignificant positive relationship of trade openness with average income growth and significantly negative relationship with poverty. During post liberalization period this impact is significant and positive over growth and poverty in South Asian region. The relationship is weak in both cases. Per capita income growth shows a strong, positive and significant impact over poverty. Gini (income inequality) is negatively related with average income growth and positively with poverty. Unemployment reduces growth of income (mostly significantly) but an ambiguous relationship with poverty. Government consumption and investment show strong, positive and significant impact over growth and a positive impact over poverty of the region. Infrastructure development raises growth weakly and lowers poverty strongly, Inflation lowers economic growth and raises poverty, population growth shows a strong, negative impact on economic growth that enhances poverty. These all results are significant. Life expectancy at birth, literacy ratio, secondary school enrolment ratio and skilled labor also show a positive and significant association with average income growth and significantly strong and negative relationship with poverty. The overall results of South Asian countries suggest that liberalization policies can play an effective role if they are made sufficiently pro-poor and pro-growth. For this purpose complementary policies are needed to strengthen the institutional capabilities and improve the poverty situation in South Asian region.