PhD Theses and Dissertations

Permanent URI for this collection

http://repository.uop.edu.pk/123456789/222

Browse

Now showing 1 - 20 of 32

WOMEN’S CONTRIBUTION IN THE SOCIO – ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: (A CASE STUDY OF DISTRICT PESHAWAR)
(Department of Economics, University of Peshawar. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, 2011) Saima Urooge; Supervised by Prof. Dr. Muhammad Naeem
This research study was conducted to know the women’s contribution in the socio-economic development. Women constitute a good half of our country’s total population. They make direct and indirect contribution to the national economy in several forms, but much of it goes unnoticed and unaccounted even it is neither adequately assessed nor evaluated. In fact, the aim of the study is to highlight the two categories of women i.e working women and house wives paid/employed and un-paid/un-employed) who also contribute in the socio-economic development. So the main objectives of the research are: to study the general condition of socio-economic characteristics of the sample: to analyze the status of working women: and to find out women’s contribution in the process of socio-economic development of Pakistan in general and target areas in particular. In the light of these objectives three hypotheses were developed which are: The incidence of paid employment of urban women is higher than the rural women; Women make a significant contribution in the (paid and unpaid) national economy; and the participation and contribution of women has a positive impact on the socio-economic development of a country. Both primary and secondary data were used to achieve the objectives and to test/justify the hypotheses in the research. For this purpose, Peshawar district was selected as a research area. Further three urban areas that is Gulbahar, University Town and Hayatabad and three rural areas, Kacha Garhie, Palosai and Achinie were selected. The sample size (age between 20 -60 years) was 450 which comprised of 300 urban and 150 rural households. However, from each urban and rural area 100 and 50 sample size was chosen respectively. A questionnaire was developed, pre-tested, distributed and collected in the selected research areas. To analyze the data three models were developed and regression test was run. Based on the findings of the research it is deduced that majority of the female respondents were of age (20-30) years in urban and (31-40) years in the rural areas. In both areas majority of the respondents approximately 50% were married and having male head of the household (75.6% in urban and 83.4% in rural areas). In urban areas most of the respondents are post-graduated (39.7%) while 63.3% were educated from madrassa in rural areas. In both areas 57.3% in urban and 98% in rural areas respondents contributed below or equal to Rs.10,000 in the family’s total income. About 60% in both areas respondents feel satisfied with their life and in the same way 80.3% and 66% in urban and rural areas respectively feel that their living standard or status is improved as before. The result of regression analysis for the three models were that Model 1 for both urban and rural areas shows significant and positive effect on the status of working women in the district Peshawar except participation in decision making (in Gulbahar, Palosai and Achinie) and ability to cope up with the situation in risk and uncertainty (in Kacha Garahie) show negative relation with the status of working women. While participation in decision making (in all three rural areas) and ability to cope up with the situation in risk and uncertainty (in University Town, Hayatabad and Palosai) show insignificant results. Similarly Model 2 also shows positive and significant effect on working women‘s share in family’s total income. However, number of earning members of a family in all the three urban areas and two rural areas i.e. Kacha Garahie and Palosai relate negatively. Similarly education of the head of the house hold (in Gulbahar and University Town) and total hours of work in a day (in Palosia) 2 also relate negatively with the working women’s share in family’s Total Income. The last Model 3 for selected urban and rural areas of research shows positive and significant effect on the house wive’s share in family’s total income. Except Family Organization (in Hayatabad, Gulbahar, Kacha Garahie and Palosia) and number of family member (in Achinie) which shows negative relation with house wives’ share in the family’s total income. As a whole majority of the results in all three models for urban and rural areas are significant at 0.01 level of significance and also the results of Durbin Watson test in these three models for both urban and rural areas showed no auto-correlation because the estimated values are found in the range of dL=1.73 and u=2.3 .The value of R2 and Adj.R2 are found more than 70% in all three models both for urban and rural areas, even it is near and equal to 90% in Model 1 for both urban and rural areas, also in Model 2 for rural areas, which show that there is a strong relation between the dependent variable and independent variables in all the three models so the three models are good fit. The result of F-Statistics also shows that all the three models for selected urban and rural areas is significant at 0.01 level of significance. It is found and concluded from the result of the current study that generally working women (employed) and especially house wives (unemployed) also make a significant contribution in the (paid and unpaid) national economy in the form of their share in the family’s total income while they have a direct and positive impact on the socio-economic development of a country like Pakistan. The rate of economic participation of these women can be substantially raised through the introduction of appropriate measures. For most among the recommendations which are based on the current study are that it is suggested government may allocate more resources or funds in budgets generally in urban and especially in rural areas for female education, increase in quotas for their jobs and create more opportunities for their businesses so that it will enhance their literacy rate, status in jobs and businesses which would make them more empowered and independent in a society. It is also recommended that more GO’s, NGO’s and other agencies like US Aid, should provide and extent their cooperation in regard of women of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (i.e Qarz e Hassna for education, more loans for businesses at subsidize or free of interest rate).
Economic Viability of the Carp Fish Farming and Its Impact on the Living Standard (A Case Study of Selected District of NWFP, Pakistan)
(Department of Economics, University of Peshawar. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, 2014-06) Sir Biland Khan; Supervised by Prof. Dr. Jehanzeb
The study related to Economic viability of Carp Fish Farming and its impact on the living standard ofthe inhabitants in the selected Districts of KP. Due to the growing population and increased home construction on agricultural land, the need is felt to give a serious attention to fish farming. Production and consumption offish meet the needs of food and nourishment, also it is the primary source ofincome for the people attached with fish farming, and this thesis will focus on various issues related to fish farming. The main objective of the study were to analyze benefit of fish farmers, to see its viability by using NPV, BCR and IRR criteria and to estimate the MPPpa and MPPKk.For the purpose ofthis study, The population is divided in three zones. Zone— 1, ice. “Peshawar Valley”, including Mardan, Sawabi, Charsadda and Nowshera districts, Zone-II, i.e. all districts to North of Peshawar valley including Chitral, Dir, Malakand, Swat, Bunir, Mansehra and Harripur districts. Zone-III_ comprised of districts on the south of Peshawar Valley, that is Kohat, Bannu, LakkiMarwat, D.1. Khan and FATA. For this purpose a study of 60 fish farms i.e. 35 from Zone I(Mardan&Charsada Districts), while 25 from Zone Ill ( Kohat and D.L-Khan Districts) were selected by using purposive sampling technique. And two districts from each stratum(Zone) were selected purposively on the basis ofmaximum number ofthe CARP fish farms. The study reveals that the output elasticity ofpond area was 0.68 on all farms, which was relatively higher than the output elasticity of Capital (i.¢e.0.59), where capital also includes the cost of fries purchased. This model suggested that area under pond plays a Vital role in the output of carp fish. The study concludes that this enterprise is a viable enterprise( Having NPV of +13991, BCRis 1.03 and IRR of 12.67% > 12%) and plays a vital role in poverty reduction , minimizing unemployment and changingthe living standard offish farmers in particular and of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in general. Key words: Fish Farms,NPV, BCR, IRR, MPPL, MPPk, etc.
An Inquiry into Genesis and Socio-Economic Impact of Land Reforms in Pakistan with Particular Reference to NWFP
(Department of Economics, University of Peshawar. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, 1998) Shahriyar Khan; Supervised by Abdus Samad Khan (Director, Center of Applied Economics Studies, UOP)
This study traces the genesis of land reforms in Pakistan with particular reference to the North West Frontier Province (NWFP), appraises their socio-economic impact, and examines the case for further reforms. It embraces the tenancy, quasi-distributive, anddistributive reforms introducedin post-1947 period in Pakistan, but the main focus is on the distributive land reforms (DLRs) of 1959, 1972, and 1977. The genesis of land reforms, designed to reduce concentration of land ownership, is traceable to the legislations introduced in early fifties to improve tenanc ysituation, confer ownership rights on occupancy tenants, and abolish the Jagirs. These reforms proved as precursors to the DLRs the first of which was introducedin 1959. The chronology and contents of land reforms-in the widersense, clearly show that the ruling political parties adhered to the policy of gradualism, rather than radicalism, on the land reform front. In the first phase, lasting over a decade, the reforms aimed at only minimizing the adverse impacts of mal-distribution of land through tenancy and quasi distributive reforms, but avoided correcting the land distribution pattern. Mounting pressure for imposing a land ownership ceiling led the government to introduce the required legislation, but only as late as 1959. The 1959-Land Reform was by all standards a very lenient reformas clearly indicated by the high land ceilings, liberal concessions, and several exemptions providedby it. Even where no exemptions/concessions were available, a person could retain as many as 36,000 PIU worth of land or 500 acres/irrigated or 1000 acres/unirrigated land, whichever be more, which was considered to be too high a ceiling. The 1972-land reform loweredthe ceiling to 12,000 PIUs, again rather too high as indicated the fact that the average farm size then obtaining in the country was a mere half of the subsistence holding (12.5 acres). This realization led to a further lowering of land ceilings to 8,000 PIUs in 1977. All the three DLRs were launched with great expectations with respect to their positive socio-economic impacts. This study finds that on the whole the impacts have been of a positive nature, but their quantum has been too small to be called significant. A definite limit to land ownership has been imposed, and the old craze land accumulation seems to have subsided. But very little of the privately owned land has changed hands. a very small percentage of big land owners has been affected, and similariy a very small percentage of small farmers/tenants has been benefitted as will be borne out by the following statistics. Sr.No. Particulars Units Land Reforms of 1959, 1972 &1977 NWFP Pakistan 1. Affected Landlords Number 502 2. Total area resumed Acres 407,381 4,055,363 3. Area given to tenants/small farmers Acres 161,578 1,777,711 4. Number of beneficiaries Number 37,549 262,700 5. Average area recieved per beneficiary Acre 6.78 4.3 6. Total resumed area as %age of total 6.94 4.5 privately owned land in NWFP Thus, only 6.94% of the privately owned land was resumed in NWFP. This is too small anarea to affect the land ownership pattern even mildly. Similarly, only 37,549 persons were given land. They constituted approximately two percent of small land owners/tenants who were land aspirants. The smallness of the number of beneficiaries, and also thefact that on average they got 6-94 acres each, is clearly indicative of the smallness of land reform achievements and impacts. Distribution of land on such a small scale should be expected to producenovisible or lasting changeat macro level and thatis confirmed by relevant data. At micro-level i.e; beneficiaries household level, visibility of positive impacts of land reformsis, however, much better. All land recipients have experienced some socio-economic improvements-which most of them attribute to a large extent, to land reforms. The improvements are indicated by increase in the area owned by beneficiaries, rise in agri productivity/employment level/income, better access to educational and medicalfacilities, and beneficiaries expression of a sense of improvementin their socio-economic lot. Although the past reforms havenot madea visible and lasting impact on land ownership pattern andassociated aspects of agri and rural sector, their achievements are on the whole of a positive nature. Thenotedpositive impacts al macro and micro levels under score, if anything, only the need of further reforms of more radical nature and a wider scope. The land ceilings need be lowered and they should be placed on family holdings. Thereis simultaneously a need also to check proliferation of farms i.e; the trend towards decline infe rm size need be checked. The reform package should be such that it provides for equitable distribution of land, paves way for scientific agriculture, provides for more employment, and in the ultimate analysis turns agriculture into a dynamic sector.
An Analysis of Governmental and Non-Governmental Rural Development Programmes with Particular Focus on Rural Women in NWFP (A Case Study of Three Union Councils in District Peshawar).
(Department of Economics, University of Peshawar. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, 2006-07) Shaheen Nigar; Supervised by Prof. Dr. Arbab Ikramullah Khan
The aim ofthe present study was to examine the services of both government and Non-governmental organizations in North West Frontier Province (NWFP) Pakistan. For this purpose Peshawar of the NWFP was taken as a sample district. Govt. organizations are working throughout the province but NGOs existence is erratic. Their sizes and functions also differ widely. For the purpose of comparison a leading NGO namely Sarhad Rural Support Program (SRSP) was selected. The SRSP has launched its activities in different sectors and is actively involved in developmental works in the area. In addition to the secondary data, primary data were also collected. A total of210 females’ respondents were purposively selected. The findings ofthe study show that the people ofthe area are availing/utilizing the services of both the organizations i.e. government and of the NGO. The government organizations are investing more in the social sector while the NGO stress is on skill development. The government, social sector facilities are for the general public irrespective of the economic status while the NGO’s focus is on the poor community. However, both are benefiting the rural masses ofthe area. In so for as the social services are concerned the study finds that various social services provided by the government, are sparsely utilized by the women due to various socio-economic reasons. These include family responsibilities, ignorance and cultural taboos. In the health sector a numberof factors were found to be responsible for its underutilization. On the one hand, the health services were not easily accessible, poorly equipped and the medicine provided were of sub-standard and on the other hand majority ofrural women were poor and they could not afford expenses. In so far as the family planning services are concerned the poor popularity of family planning services was due to ignorance, non availability of required contraceptives and the influence oflocal religious leaders who consider that family planning was against norms ofIslam. Results of study show that NGO (SRSP) programme are more popular and effective among rural women. Women community organizations (WCOs) were established by SRSP and had been successfully working in the sample area. The sample women reported that they had been guided and motivated by SRSPstaff while establishing WCOs. The WCOs introduce those developmentalactivities that directly address the needs of the people. To enhance the income of local women, trainings were imparted in tailoring, embroidery, dyeing, poultry farming, fruit processing, bee keeping and Mushroom cultivation. All these activities insignificantly increase the income of the concerned women. However, the income of the dyeing was higher than that ofthe rest of the stated trainings. These entrepreneurship training encouraged womento start small business. Two levels (Rs. 5000 to 10000 —herein after called level 1- and Rs. 18000 to 20000 herein after called level 2) of credit were provided to communities for this purpose. Thecredits were mostly utilized for the purchase oflivestock and enterprise development. The income effect of level 2 credit wasinsignificantly higher than that of level 1. Similarly the income effect of enterprises was insignificantly higher than that of livestock. The majoreffect ofthe SRSP on gender related economic activities were the contribution of women in total household income. The study showed encouragingresults regarding increase in monthly income of the sample respondents, after the intervention of SRSP. The increase in monthly income of the sample respondents resulted in an increase in spending mainly on education and, health. Financial stability made them more confidents in decision-making. The study also identified the problem of inadequate amountofcredit and lack ofmarketing facilities, the provision of such facilities will ensure rural women’s empowermentand poverty alleviation at grass rootlevel. Some complaints were also registered by the member of the WCO’sregarding the duration of trainings because it was so short especially for the illiterate respondents that they could not take full advantage ofthese courses. It was also observed that at present there is little co-ordination between Government and NGO’s.It needs to be established and strengthened through mutual consultation, regular meetings and collaborationactivities. The study recommends increased coverage, representation of ethnic groups, need oriented approach, relaxed credit packages, strengthening of co-ordination between the line departments, proper monitoring, improvement in community infrastructure etc. Beside this special attention should be given to social sector by providing them adequate funds for building and other physical facilitates, qualified and well trained teaching andhealth personnel and also these services be madeeasily accessible to the rural communities. Marginal success of NGOs working maybe taken cautiously because NGO programmes depend on financing of donor agencies. When donor agencies withdraw hands NGOs programmes are in doldrums
CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE IN PAKISTAN: A Case Study of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (1980-2010)
(Department of Economics, University of Peshawar. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, 2012) Samreen Babar; Supervised by Prof. Dr. Naeem ur Rehman Khattak
The world is facing climate challenges in the form of flash floods or harsh droughts, intense thunder storms or occasional rains, swamped plains or barren land, water assimilation or water scarcity. The aim of this research is to study the impact of climate changing events on Pakistan in general and its agriculture sector in particular. It will help in better copping against the future climate changing incidents. The intense rains of 2010, which resulted in a sever flood, is one of the climate change event in Pakistan. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa was among the provinces affected by the flood event of 2010. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa by ecological landscape can be divided into three zones or regions i.e. the Northern, the Central and the Southern regions. This study is an attempt to measure the climate variations in the three climate zones of the province, over the thirty year period (1980-2010). The environmental trend analysis results of the study shows that Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as a whole has experienced the climate change impacts in terms of rise in mean temperature from 0.3°C to 1.2°C and average rainfall from11mm to 15mm over the thirty years span. The climate intense event of 2010 impact was observed in terms of decreased agricultural production of Kharif and rabi crop. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa agricultural statistics showed a decline of Kharif (maize) crop from 1880 kg/hector in 2008-09 to 1783 kg/hector in 2009-10 and Rabi (wheat) production of 1565 Kg/hector in 2008-09 was reduced to 1520 Kg/hector in 2009-10. The climate changing impacts on agricultural sector is accessed by analyzing the two seasoned crops i.e. Rabi and Kharif of the province. The economic regression analysis is performed in this respect. The findings of the study shows that climate factors does effects crop production. Climate impacts on rabi crop of the province are more distinct than the kharif crop. The regional regression results depicts a positive impact of climate change on the northern part of the province whereas a negative impact on crop production is seen due to the elevated temperatures and untimely rainfalls.
AN ANALYSIS OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS AFFECTING FOREST AREA IN PAKISTAN WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO NWFP (1972-2000)
(Department of Economics, University of Peshawar. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, 2008-01) Naila Nazir; Supervised by Prof. Dr. Ijaz Majid
This study was an attempt to analyze the socio-economic factors affecting forest area in Pakistan. Every year different areas are afforested and regenerated. Policies and programs are prepared to increase the forest area up to national requirements but there is no significant increase in the area rather fast deforestation is taking place. Forest communities play a significant role in the use and depletion of these resources. The study highlighted the assumptions about some macro economic variables, which are generally considered as key socio-economic factors that cause deforestation and depletion of forests and tested the hypothesis in order to show the impact of these factors on forest area in Pakistan. In order to achieve the objectives of the study and to test the hypotheses the followed methodology has two aspects; one, consulting the forest communities in forest rich areas of the province and second, analyzing the macro economic data of different socio economic factors that have impacts on the forest area of the country. For the first aspect two forest rich areas in NWFP; District Abbottabad and District Mansehra have been selected. The socio economic conditions of these areas have been discussed and analyzed. The priorities and practices of forest communities in the use of different resources have been checked. For the second aspect the study analyzed time series data of some of the socio-economic factors of Pakistan for example agriculture production, cultivated area, livestock and human population, the consumption of fuel wood substitutes etc. Taking the forest area of NWFP and forest area of Pakistan as a whole then checked the results of these socio-economic factors. For the analysis multiple regression technique was applied on the time series data from 1972-2000. The results of the econometric models were then compared with the primary information collected from the two districts of NWFP; District Abbottabad and District Mansehra. These results were further analyzed by comparing them with earlier studies conducted in the same field. The results of the primary data showed that most of the firewood and timber is extracted illegally and there is no official record or even a rough estimation of the total quantity illegally extracted. The most responsible figure as mentioned by the locals also includes Forest Department, which is a part of timber mafia. Forest department has no arrangement for forest fires; it is the locals who extinguish it by using local practices. The study area has not received real benefit of gas provision by the government in the country because these facilities are not yet extended to their areas and alternate sources are not enough. Both the study areas are suffering from some problems, which are contributing to deforestation, for example common property, lack of interest and cooperation of Forest Department with locals, lack of follow up of forestry programs especially started by foreign agencies etc. In both the areas there is no increase in animals so livestock population is not the prime threat. Human population has increased but they are either migrating to other areas or opting for service sector. In both the areas people have very little knowledge about government policies and programs. The results of the primary information showed some valuable facts about forest land conversion for other purposes, about Forest Department, the role of government and non-government organizations, about forest fires and about timber mafia in the study area. The results of the regression models obtained from the time series macro economic data showed that some of the socio-economic factors of the country that are generally considered as the most responsible factors for the depletion of forests such as increase in human and livestock population are not the important factors contributing towards deforestation in Pakistan but some others like cultivation, construction, consumption of timber and agriculture production are playing their due role towards deforestation. The study further showed that increase in the consumption of firewood substitutes could not significantly improve the situation. The analysis further showed the extent of effect of different variables on the forest areas. The recommendations of the study have given more emphasis to control the land use practices especially controlling land conversion for other purposes, proper demarcation of forest boundaries in Abbottabad and Mansehra districts to save from conversion and misuse, on regular basis the involvement of locals in plantation and giving incentives in cash and kind for plantation, provision of alternate energy resources in the study area especially to hill side forest communities, and proper follow up of the programs already launched in forestry sector to maintain the confidence of the locals. Further, since cultivation and construction activities are the main threat found in the study so more focused attention is needed in this regard and the general policy for addressing these problems would not work. To build up forestry data base is the prime requirement. The macro economic time series data of Pakistan is not accommodating illegal timber. So constructing an estimated time series data for actual fire wood and timber consumption including illegal extraction in Pakistan would be the future task based on the results of the present study that would give more robust results out of the present research.
A Comprehensive Analysis of Wheat Production and Balances Its Demand and Supply Problems and Remedial Measures (A Case Study of Pakistan)
(Department of Economics, University of Peshawar. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, 1999) Mohammad Naeem; Supervised by Prof Abdus Samad (Director, Center of Applied Economics Studies)
Wheat is a universally cultivated and produced staple food item of commonuse. In Pakistan, it is being used regularly. Its extensive and constant use has made people habitual ofit and they cannot evenbearits partial shortage or scarcity. The purpose of the present study is to remove suchtransitory shortages between consumption (demand) and production (supply) to bridge the gap between them throughefficient wheat policy. Consumption (demand) of wheat depends highly on population growth and changes in per capita income of the country. Population of Pakistan is increasing at a higher rate (2.7 percent), which is creating pressure on the cultivated land and thus adversely affecting production of wheat. Moreover, the per capita incomeis increasing at a rate of 11.9 percent which is raising the aggregate demand for better quality of wheat. Thus, a gap is created between demand and supply of wheat whichis further widening with the passage of time. This problem can be solved throughefficient government policies, which will bring self-sufficiency of wheat to the economy and may even lead towards exportation of wheat and earn foreign exchange in import substitution. Self-sufficiency in food grain productionis the national goal. Pakistan enjoys a comparative advantage in wheat production, therefore, the self-sufficiency goal is theoretically valid. The essence of the findings of the present studyis that the irrigation induced technological changes would accelerate the growth of wheat production, resulting in a gain of economic efficiency and achieving self sufficiency. The key success to increase wheat production lies in rapid adoption of technology. The diffusion of biochemical technology (HYV, fertilisers pesticides, etc) is a more appropriate path towards technological progress than alternative labour saving mechanisation (labour — intensive and capital intensive techniques). Production (supply) of wheat depends onthe total land availability for the crop, irrigation facilities, climatic conditions and market price of wheat. Wheat is sown in the month of November-December, where in rain fed areas, we receive verylittle rain and which alwaysbrings a bad harvest. It is an exceptional case in Baluchistan and N.W.F.P. but bumper cropping in Punjab and Sindh have irrigation facilities. Effort has been madeinthis study to achieve an equilibrium between demand and supply of wheat. For this, data has mainly been obtained and used from government published agricultural bulletins, economic surveys, etc. Moreover a little primary data has also been used for the derivation of Cobb-Douglas production function and Marginal Physical Product of labour. A very useful Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model has been used in this study which has forecasted wheat production upto 2010 (13 years ahead). This will help the planners and concerned agencies in time importation of wheat. The findings of the study are that both irrigation and technology would play the leading role in the growthof future wheat production. The government will also have to change its wheat policies in light of the new development. Specially it has to eliminate subsidies and checkits role in the price formation. Finally if the recommendations ofthe study are adopted, Pakistan will not only become self-sufficient in wheat production but may emerge as wheat exporting country also.
EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS AND ITS IMPACT ON OUTPUT GROWTH, PRICE LEVEL AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES IN PAKISTAN (1973-2008)
(Department of Economics, University of Peshawar. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, 2012) Muhammad Tariq; Supervised by Prof. Dr. Naeem ur Rehman Khattak
With the breakdown of Bretton Woods in 1970s, most of the world economies shifted from fixed to flexible exchange rate system. This new development increased the variability of exchange rate in the overall macroeconomic performance and it became the central focus of the monetary authorities in both the developed and developing countries. A stable exchange rate plays a significant role in the settlement of major macroeconomic variables like output, price level and foreign exchange reserves. Whereas, its instability hinders investment, trade flow and economic growth in an economy. It also provides additional aggregate demand and supply transmission channels which help in the implementation of suitable monetary policy. Exchange rate is determined by a number of factors, the identification of which can be useful for maintaining economic stability and solving monetary ills. Among the developing countries, Pakistan experienced a unique downward trend in rupee value and frequent transitions in the exchange rate systems. These distinctive features make Pakistan economy an interesting case study for the empirical examination of the rupee exchange rate and its role in the monetary policy and macroeconomic performance. The purpose of the present study is to find out which of the macroeconomic indicators has led the Pak-rupee Real Exchange Rate (RER) depreciations during the study period. Moreover, the role of the RER in a Taylor rule based monetary policy of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has also been analyzed. Likewise, the impact of RER on output has been examined in an open economy IS curve framework for testing the contractionary hypothesis of real devaluations in Pakistan. Also, the influence of the RER on inflation has been investigated in the framework f an open economy Phillips curve approach. Furthermore, the affect of the RER on foreign exchange reserves has also been studied in the framework of a mercantilist approach. Finally, the relationship of the different exchange rate systems with the RER, monetary policy, output, price level and foreign exchange reserves have also been explored. Time series annual data covering the period 1973 to 2008 has been used for the empirical analysis. Augmented Dickey Fuller test has been used for checking the unit root in the data. Hodrick Prescott filter method has been applied for extracting the cyclical components from the observed series. Ordinary Least Squares method is used for the estimation of regression equations. The overall significance of the models has been analyzed by using Wald test. For avoiding the problems of spurious relationship between the variables and series implications for the standard errors and Durbin Watson statistic, Newy-West test has been applied. The reliability of the results has been confirmed by using the Diagnostic tools i.e. Q-statistic and LM test. CUSUM stability tests are used for checking the stability of the parameters and regression variances. Analyzing the determinants of RER, the results showed that real exchange rate fluctuations over the sample period have historically been accounted for both the domestic and foreign factors i.e. domestic inflation, domestic interest rate and US interest rate and inflation. Moreover, exchange rate regime policies are also showed to be relevant to the real exchange rate. Investigating the role of RER in the monetary policy of Pakistan, the results showed a systematic reaction to RER by the SBP in addition to the output and inflation gaps. In respect of the impact of exchange rate systems on the monetary policy, the results showed that monetary policy in Pakistan has remained constant on the different exchange rate systems followed by the SBP during the study period. Testing the contractionary hypothesis of real depreciations, it has been concluded that RER depreciations increase the output gap in Pakistan. Exchange rate regime switches are also showed to be relevant with the output gap. Dealing with the role of the RER in the determination of inflation, it is found that real depreciations is of help to describe the evolution of prices in Pakistan. It is also found that switching in exchange rate regimes explains the inflation. Finally, examining whether reserves holdings in Pakistan is motivated by precautionary or mercantilist motives, the results showed that reserves holdings in Pakistan is the by-product of the export led growth strategies of Pakistan through RER depreciations. Moreover, movement towards the floating regimes also boosted the foreign exchange reserves holdings during the study period. On the basis of the findings, it has been recommended that the SBP should also take into account foreign factors in addition to the domestic factors for the stability of RER. Also instead of targeting the monetary aggregates, the SBP should follow a rule based monetary policy where RER fluctuations should also be taken into account. Moreover, instead of devaluations of rupee for increasing exports, the government is required to follow import substitution policies. Furthermore, to increase the inflow of foreign exchange reserves in the country, the development of export sector of the country can play an important role.
The Role of Tourism in the Economic Development of Pakistan A Case Study of Northern Areas
(1998) Muhammad Bilal Malick; Supervised by Dr. Naeem ur Rehman Khattak
The present study, conducted with main focus on Northern Areas, was designed to: inquire into the state of tourism potentials; assess its socio-economic impact; and draw guidelines for minimisation of its adverse and maximization of beneficial impacts in future. The study is addressed to, but not mainlyfocused on, hypotheses that: (i) there is a positive relationship between tourism and economic development; (ii) the socio-culturalfactors and tourism are not necessarily inversely related; (iii) the intensity ofsocial, economic, environmental, and other impacts oftourism moves in sympathy with the level oftourists inflow expressed asproportionoflocal population in tourist receiving area. MAIN FINDINGS: The study, on the whole, brings out thefact that tourism has hadpositive impact on project area and that these promise to grow deeper and wider as tourism grows. Main findings in this respects are as follows: • Most of the tourists were domestic; inflow of foreign tourists is, however, positively upward. • Some 60% of tourists were males; majority belonged to 16-30 years age group; as many as 94% were educated; 88% visited the project area for the first time; 50% spent 4-8 nights in the project area. • The single largest category (35%) of tourists comprised of students/teachers, followed by government employees (31%), commercial employees (17%) and businessmen (3%). • Most tourists carried with them Rs. 8,000-10,000 per headfor visit to the Northern Areas. Majority of them spent around Rs. 300-400 per day per head. • The single largest number of local tourists came from NWFP (45%), followed by Punjab (41%), while among the foreign tourists the corresponding position is held by England (27.3%), followed by Germany (20.4%). •Tourism has positively affected agricultural sector of the economy. Total operated area under cultivation increased by 28% during last 10 years. Overall production ofcrops especiallyfruits increased by 782%; vegetables 510%; fodder crops 650%; wheat 31%; and maize 20%. Land management practices have improved too. Farmers cultivate all crops more scientifically than before. Use of mechanization on farms has increased nearlysix-folds. Average income from agricultural sector has increased from Rs. 15,00020,000 per annum in 1984, to Rs. 30,000-40,000 per annum in 1994. •Although agricultural sector is still the main provider ofjobs considerable expansion has taken place in off-farm employment and tourism development has made a major contribution in this respect.j •There were no reports of women engaged in tourism sector. However, they are now getting better job opportunities in health and education sector comparedto ten years before. •The project area has registered considerable improvement in infrastructure during 1984-94. There has been much expansion in banking (92%), communication facilities (203%) schools (316%), health facilities (121%), electricity (233%), sanitation (275%), water (103%), roads (83%) and housing (144%) during last ten years. These developments have facilitated tourism and are also to an important extent the outcome of tourism development policy of the government. •Mobility of local people has also increased. Visits tofamily andfriends have increased by 125%, visiting more places by 788% and utilization of modern vehicles by 362% during 1984-94. •Temporary and permanent out migration of local people has come down by 28% and47% respectively after 1984. However, temporary migration of local people to urban centers, within project area, forjob/business has increased by 153% and temporary inflow of outside people to project area for job/business has increased by 267% in last 10 years. •Tourism has had very little adverse impact on the level ofcorruption, dignity ofpeople, and goodwill towards foreigners in the area. Local controls are foundstill effective. • Some concern isfound among the locals as well as tourists about increase in deforestation, soil erosion and excessive hunting of the wild life in the area. The project area cannot withstandflow of mass tourism, overcrowding and excessive use ofplaces for recreation. •Tourism promotion has induced changes in consumption behaviour of the local population, with regard to certain types ofbeverages, vegetables, dairy products, andfashion accessories etc. The average consumption expenditure of sample family has gone up from Rs. 20,000-30,000 per annum to Rs.30,000-40,000 per annumin last ten years. • Rise in local people’s income and employmentlevel, to which tourism has made a good contribution, increase in their mobility, and their growing contacts with tourists from more developed regions of Pakistan, as well as foreign countries, have had a positive impact on their attitude towards, and perception of, modern education, modern medical practices (allopathic treatment) in preference to old ones, housing, sanitation etc. The quality of life has, thus on the whole, been improving due to these positive influences. CONCLUSIONS: Several important conclusions emergefromthis study’s findings on socio-economic impacts of tourism in the context of Pakistan in general and Northern Areas in particular. These conclusions are stated below with reference to the study’s hypotheses. I) Thereis a positive relationship between tourism and economic development. The study confirms this hypothesis. In the particular case ofNorthern Areas, tourism has proved to be one ofmajor catalysts ofinitiation and acceleration of development process, and this role will grow with further growth of tourism. All sectors of the project area’s economypresent positive readings. The farm sector has experienced significant expansionbothvertically and horizontally. Visibility ofnon-farm sector’s expansion is even greater. Thus, all told, a Significant rise in income and employment has taken place in the project area, more goods and services are available now than before, consumption patterns are changing, and the local economyis on the whole muchbetter placed than a decade ago. Thus, tourism has made a significant contribution to the area’s economy. II) The socio culturalfactors and tourism are not necessarily inversely related. The study'sfindings confirmthis hypothesis, but with reservations. In the particular context of the project area, little or no impact on the area’s overall social and cultural environments has been caused bytourists inflow yet. Some adverse impacts, on negligible scale, have been observed in localities which receive tourists in a relatively large number — and these are all urbanlocalities. But local institutions are still strong enoughto counter the negative impacts. The project area is not yet exposed to negative impacts in this sphere, because the tourists are relatively small in number. But, the hazards are bound to grow as tourists’ number relative to local population increases. Appropriate planning can, however, help minimize these hazards. III) The intensity of social, economic, environmental, and other impacts of tourism moves in sympathy with the level oftourists inflow expressed as proportion of local population in tourist receiving area. This hypothesis is confirmed by the present study. Infact this conclusion is embodied in hypotheses as discussed above. Tourism has begun positively impacting the project area’s economy. The strength of impacts is presently low, but it will increase with tourists inflow, repeat visits, and increase in stay. The adverse impacts are lowor negligible presently — such as erosion ofsocial values, sexual immorality, crimes, conspicuous consumption, etc. A definite positive association betweenthese negative impacts and level of tourists inflow is observable. Appropriate planning can, however, help minimize the same. Thus, to conclude, the above hypothesis in duly verified by the study’sfindings. Summing up the aforestated three inter-linked conclusions, it is concluded that tourism, if properly planned and kept within tourists receiving area’s tourists carrying capacity, performs the role of catalyst of development. It contributes positively to initiation and acceleration ofthe process ofdevelopmentandinits turn receives impetusfrom the same i.e; development. Therefore, tourism industry should be an integral component of development plans for areas that have tourists attractions, such as the Northern Areas.
THE ROLE OF HUMAN CAPITAL IN ECONOMIC GROWTH OF PAKISTAN (1971-2008)
(Department of Economics, University of Peshawar. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, 2012) Jangraiz Khan; Supervised by Dr. Naeem ur Rehman Khattak
Positive economic growth has always been the core objective of economic policies across the world. The economists and policy makers have always been engaged in digging out the determinants of economic growth. In 1960’s, the concepts of health, consumption and education were introduced in economic growth studies, which led to addition of the term, “human capital” in determinants of economic growth. In 1980’s, human capital was formally introduced in economic growth literature and since then, it became an integral component of economic growth. The present study aims at finding-out the role of human capital in economic growth of Pakistan during the period 1971-2008. Education, health, and Research and Development (R&D) have been used as measures for human capital. An attempt has also been made in this study to find the impact of institutions on human capital and thus, its indirect contribution to economic growth. The study in hand, also strived to explore the impact of human capital on physical capital accumulation and labour force participation. Likewise, the contribution of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) has also been calculated in presence of education, health and R&D separately. The calculations of TFP have been revised by taking different shares of factors inputs and time intervals. The contribution of TFP in Pakistan has been compared with seven South Asian countries. The study has used secondary data for analysis, which has been taken from different national and international organization. Growth Accounting Method (GAM) has been used to calculate TFP. The econometric techniques used for analysis are Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Two Stage Least Squares, Cointegration and Granger Causality test. The results of the study show that TFP contribute 38.47 % to GDP per capita, when education is used as a measure for human capital. This contribution increases to 47.74%, when education is replaced by health and fell to 18.27% with R&D as measure of human capital in TFP model. The contribution of TFP increases irrespective of measure of human capital, when minimum share of capital is used. It increases to 46.72%, 57.08% and 24.14% in case of education, health and R&D respectively. The results of economic growth model, obtained through the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) show that education, health and R&D positively affected economic growth of Pakistan during the study period. Health and R&D remained statistically significant while education remained insignificant. The results of simultaneous equations model show that Education, health, R&D and labour are significant determinants of economic growth in Pakistan. The quality as well as quantity of educational institutions and Real GDP per capita appeared as significant determinants of education in Pakistan. The results further show that education and quality of health institutions are significant factors for health in Pakistan. Similarly, educational institutions and Real GDP per capita appeared as major and significant determinants of R&D during the study period. In the same way, R&D, health and education positively affected physical capital in Pakistan. The Cointegration test results show that education, health and R&D affected economic growth in long run in Pakistan during 1971-2008. The equations for education and health also showed the existence of cointegrating equation, which indicates the existence of long run relationship among the variables. Real GDP per capita, education, quality and quantity of educational institutions affect R&D, while human capital, labour force and economic growth affect physical capital in the long run. Similarly, human capital in form of education, health and R&D emerged as a macro determinant of labour force participation. The Granger Causality Test shows some important uni-directional relationships among the variables of the study. The findings of the study suggest TFP to be an important determinant of economic growth in Pakistan, hence, the determinants of TFP needs to be explored. Education should be kept on top priority and resource allocation to education should be increased. It is strongly recommended to enhance investment in health and R&D to put the economy on path of sustained growth. Labour in Pakistan positively affect economic growth, therefore to increase the productivity of labour, it should be equipped with appropriate skills.
The Impact of Education and Health on Economic Growth: An Econometric Study of Pakistan (1970-20210)
(Department of Economics, University of Peshawar. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, 2014) Imdad Ullah; Supervised by Dr. Muhammad Naeem
Education and health are the two important components of human capital. Education is a powerful instrument in reducing poverty, enhancing earnings, economic growth, empowering people, and promoting a healthy and flexible environment and creating competitive economy. It plays an important role in shaping the ways to become skilled and handle with the complexities of economic growth by the future generations. On the other hand health is a basic and key ingredient of human capital and an important determinant of economic growth. The main objective of this study was to examine the impact of education and health on the economic growth of Pakistan, using time series data from 1970-2010. To achieve this objective, the study was completed in different phases. In the first phase, a comprehensive literature review was carried out using standard sources and tools for the better understanding of theoretical and emperical aspects of the study. In the second phase secondary data were collected from the State Bank of Pakistan and World Development Indicators. A total of eight variables was selected for the study i.e. public spending on education and health, enrollment at primary, secondary and tertiary level, life expectancy and infant mortality rate. The collected data for these variables was analyzed using computer software EViews version 5. During data analysis different econometric techniques were applied to examine the stationarity of data and long run and the short run relationship between education, health and economic growth. For stationarity, long run and short run relationship Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Philips Perron (PP) tests, Engle Granger two step procedure, Auto Regressive Distributive Lags (ARDL) and Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) were used respectively. The validity of ARDL and ECM models was checked by Auto Correlation, Heteroscedasticity, Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity, and parameter stablity tests. The results of these tests confirmed that these models are best fitted. The findings of Augmented Dickey Fuller and Philips Perron tests show that all variable are unit root at level and stationary at first difference or co-integrated of order one. The results of Engle Granger two step procedure and ARDL tests confirmed that education, health and economic growth have a long run relationship whereas, Error Correction Mechanism also confirmed their short run relationship. The results of linear regression show that education and health have a positive and significant impact on the economic growth of Pakistan. This study also found that education; health and economic growth are co-integrated and have a long run relationship. Health and education play a major and important role in determining the long run economic growth of Pakistan. The study confirmed that if government increases budget for education and health, more people will be educated which will result in more educated workers and resultantly more production. Similarly, it will also have a good impact on the health of the general public. The study suggests that the government of Pakistan should consider education and health sectors while formulating policies and must allocate sufficient budget for them.
Scaling Up and Mission Drift: The Role of Microfinance Institutions in Poverty Alleviation-A Case Study of Peshawar Region
(Department of Economics, University of Peshawar. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, 2014-05) Mohammad Saeed; Supervised by Dr. Muhammad Naeem
Microfinance programs as an effective strategy to alleviate poverty by providing financial services to those who have no access to capital and formal financial services as well as providing additional support services like literacy, training, access to health services, and platforms to organize communities. Microfinance institutions have not yet been achieved the attention to the reputation at the global level, despite the contribution to poverty reduction remains limited. A large-scale are not met, to meet the demand of its own, the long-term sustainability in order to provide the microfinance program are facing increasing pressure to expand their outreach activities, grow, enhance their impact. This pressure, in many cases, poses the dilemma of the original mission of poverty reduction and financial sustainability, and in order to ensure that we have a difficult decision to make many of the microfinance institutions sustainable. The question of the problem is how microfinance institutions adhere to the social mission of reaching the poor while extending the reach of the social mission to the poor people. This question is addressed through a case study of Sarhad Rural Support program (SRSP) a poverty focused microfinance institution in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.. Key features of the methodology. (1) the use of the multi-dimensional PRE-POST quantitative data to display whether or not there is mission drift at SRSP, (2) How to use the mixed methods to identify challenges that have been identified in the lead to drift while scaling up and strategy that inhibit drift, based on whether or not there is mission drift, and (3) use of purposive sampling to explore selected themes of primary findings in order to gain better understanding. The results indicate that the MFI survey has not significantly drifted away from its poverty alleviation mission. The MFI has been able to adhere to its mission despite the many challenges they faced during the scaling up. The specific strategies that have enabled the MFI to maintain its mission (1) likeminded board, and (2) a faithful staff, management, and (3) participation of members (the client), and (4) keeping the platform for development, and (5) member responsive assessment and monitoring system. The study also provides a framework and a set of indicators and tools that may be used by researchers and practitioners to measure the fulfillment of social mission. i
Economic Analysis of Consumption Pattern and Living Standard of Rural-Urban Population in North West Frontier Province of Pakistan
(Department of Economics, University of Peshawar. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, 2004) Zilakat Khan Malik; Supervised by Dr. Jahan Zeb
The activities related to maintaining life and improving its condition encompass both consumption and production. The pattern and composition of consumption determine the standard of living, while the sole purpose of production is to provide the means of consumption and to increase the income. Higher consumption and its appropriate pattern improve the standard of living and economic development. The rural-urban division of population also influences the economic development. Therefore. topic of the dissertation was stated as "Economic Analysis of consumpation pattern and living standard of Rural-Urban population in the North West Frontier Province of Pakistan" and an attempt was made to achieve the following main objectives: To asses the socio-economic conditions of Rural-Urban households and to analyse their budgetary position and To discuss their consumption pattern and living standard and to verify the .following main assumptions: o Socio-economic conditions and the budgetary position were not conducive to improve their living standard. o Significant fraction of income was spent on uneconomic pursuits. The consumption pattern was substandard. Scope of the study was confined to the NWFP. Both the primary and secondary sources of data were used for collection of data. A comprehensive interview schedule Ivas used to collect primary cross section data. A sample size of 120 households was distributed among six villages from rural region and six streets from urban region of the different strata of the province, determined on basis of developed districts and under developed/backward districts. The sample households were selected using a combination of Stratified Random Sampling and Simple Random Sampling techniques. According to Keynes psychological law of consumption, the simple and multiple linear consumption functions were estimated and the Marginal Propensities to Consume and to Save (MPC and MPS) were determined. For the size distribution (income) and determination of degree of poverty, the Lorenz curve, Gini-coefficient and the ratio of bottom 20% to top 20% were used. The study is organized in seven chapters followed by appendices and annexures. Chapter-I and 2 focus on the introduction and review of literature respectively. Demographic features of the sample households are analysed in chapter 3 and chapter 4 is devoted to "Budgetary Position of the sample households-. It was observed that the overall average family size was nine. More than half of the population consisted of dependent class. Females were greater in number. Majority (70%) of the sample population lived in the rural region depending on agriculture. Only 34.10% of the labour force could get employment. A remarkable proportion (84.13%) of unemployed females was recorded in the rural areas. Main occupation in the urban area was business, while it was farming in the rural areas.Majority of the sample households fell in the low income brackets. Very few families could reach higher income brackets. The level of consumption was very low. In absolute terms it it-as Rs. 120 lac per month for 2080 individuals. The consumption pattern was also not on the proper track Allocations to uneconomic pursuits and unproductive expenditures were greater as compared to spending on education. health and balanced .foods. As a consequence the standard of living was substandard and all the indicators did not prove to lead to the economic development. The empirical results also supported that the standard of living was substandard,because a very low autonomous consumption and a high marginal propensity to consume (due to the level of income on or closer to the break even point) led to less savings and in turn a lower level of investment, which adversely influenced production capacity and economic growth. This situation slowed down economic development. The techniques used for the size distribution showed that very few individuals of the society could receive a greater portion of income, while a greater number of households shared a very small fraction of the national income. It was concluded that in addition to some other factors, the unequal distribution of income and its severity were the main obstacles in achieving proper level and pattern of consumption, appropriate standard of living and desirable rate of economic development.
Trade Liberalization, Economic Growth and Poverty Alleviation: A Case Study of Selected South Asian Countries
(Department of Economics, University of Peshawar. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, 2014-11) Waqar-Un-Nisa; Supervised by Dr. Naeem ur Rehman Khattak
WTO (World Trade Organization) that replaced GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade), claims speedy growth and reduction of poverty through greater trade expansion. This study evaluates the existence and impact of relationship between trade liberalization, economic growth and poverty in the context of selected South Asian countries namely Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan and Maldives. Time series and cross sectional data is pooled and divided into two sub periods as pre liberalization (1960-1980) and post liberalization period (1981-2011) to compare the relationship of trade with growth and poverty between the two periods. GLS technique is used with countries’ Fixed and Random Effect Models. Variables are trade openness, average income growth, poverty, income inequality, unemployment, infrastructure development (transport and communication sector development) government consumption, investment, life expectancy at birth, literacy ratio, secondary school enrolment ratio, skilled labor, inflation rate, and population growth. First, trade openness along with other variables is estimated to see its impact over growth and then trade openness and growth along with other variables are estimated to see their impact over poverty of the South Asian region during both periods. Results show in the pre liberalization period an insignificant positive relationship of trade openness with average income growth and significantly negative relationship with poverty. During post liberalization period this impact is significant and positive over growth and poverty in South Asian region. The relationship is weak in both cases. Per capita income growth shows a strong, positive and significant impact over poverty. Gini (income inequality) is negatively related with average income growth and positively with poverty. Unemployment reduces growth of income (mostly significantly) but an ambiguous relationship with poverty. Government consumption and investment show strong, positive and significant impact over growth and a positive impact over poverty of the region. Infrastructure development raises growth weakly and lowers poverty strongly, Inflation lowers economic growth and raises poverty, population growth shows a strong, negative impact on economic growth that enhances poverty. These all results are significant. Life expectancy at birth, literacy ratio, secondary school enrolment ratio and skilled labor also show a positive and significant association with average income growth and significantly strong and negative relationship with poverty. The overall results of South Asian countries suggest that liberalization policies can play an effective role if they are made sufficiently pro-poor and pro-growth. For this purpose complementary policies are needed to strengthen the institutional capabilities and improve the poverty situation in South Asian region.
A Critical Study of the Project Appraisal Management and Control System in Pakistan: An Exercise in Evaluation
(Department of Economics, University of Peshawar. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, 1989) Saiyeda Zia Al-Jalaly; Supervised by Main M. Nazeer
In common with most developing countries, the history of planned development in Pakistan is replete with flopped projects, projects that don not see themselves to completion within the stated time and cost, or projects which do not fulfil their avowed objectives. Even otherwise well conceived projects face difficulties at the implementation on other related stages. Worse Still, the project cycle system has neither been examined nor regarded in its totality as an integrated system. This study is an in-depth analysis and evaluation of the project appraisal, management, and control system in Pakistan. The approach taken is an integrated one where, despite the emphasis on the ex-ante appraisal and implementation stages, the entire project cycle in Pakistan has been examined in order to the able to link the stages and study the problems of omission and commission which emerge at the implamentation stage. The study is, however, confined to the public sector projects which need to pass through the well laid out procedures. Being a study in the evaluation of a system, it has involved quantitative as well as qualitative examinations. These examinations range from a review of the theoretical aspects of the project cycle and its stages as well as the techniques used at various stages, to the progression of the project cycle in Pakistan, and eventually to an evaluation of the system and recommendations to improve the system. The theoretical sections are based on an extensive review of literature followed by use of secondary data based on government publications, supplemented by intervious and discussions with experts involved at various levels of planning and stages of the cycle. The main findings of the study centre around the inadequacies in the structure of PC-1, cost and time overruns, data gaps, motivation and training of personnel, lack of coordination, absence of contingency planning, lack of appropriate apprasal parameters, problems relating to project selection criteria and procedures, lack of staff, absence of an institutional link between appraisal wing and monitoring team. Findings relating to the approval and implementation stages of projects relate to the distortions arising out of anticipatory approvals, breaking of projects into smaller components to avoid higher echelons of approval and appraisal, problems arising out of the discrepancies between the need and availability of resources, a total absence fo any input or tiem plans leading to raw material constraints, delays in the provisions of essential services and physical infrastructure, problems arising out of the bases of award of contracts and selection of sites, lack of inter-agency coordination and communication and lack of a modern progress monitoring system. Findings in the field of project montoring/control centre inter alia around lack of processing of the information collected, too much information requested, jtoo frequently, and no sifting of information by level of importance, lack of trained personnel to undertake montoring; absence of an institutional monitoring set-up to handle un-anticipated problems; absence of forward and backward flow of information and decisions through an established channel. The study comprises six chapters- the first four laying out the system as it is, the fifth is devoted to an evaluation of the system, while the sixth contains the main conclusions and policy recommendations.
Economic Efficiency of the Agrarian Structure in the North West Frontier Province of Pakistan An Econometric Analysis
(Department of Economics, University of Peshawar. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, 1999-04) Jehanzeb; Supervised by Dr. Naeem ur Rehman Khattak
The study entitled “Economic Efficiency of the Agrarian Structure in the North West Frontier Province of Pakistan” is exclusively based on primarily data collected from 200 farmers in NWFP, during 1997-98. The farmers have been selected randomly through the stratified Sampling procedure. For analysis, the sampled farmers are grouped on the basis offarm characteristics such as owners, owner-cum-tenant and tenants on one hand, and small and large farmers on the other. The core objective ofthe study is to quantify the economic efficiency of the agrarian structure in NWFP. In the empirical analysis various econometric techniques have beenused. This included the use of Translog Profit function, Lorenze Curve, Gini Coefficient, Cobb-Douglas Production Function and Linear Programming, etc. Beside these, the Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC) Net Present Value (NPV), Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of various agricultural activities are also computed. The structural differences between different types of farms are determined with the help of Chow-Fratio. The results obtained from various statistical and econometric applications are coherent with the economic theory and of great help for diagnosing the agrarian structure of NWFP. Specifically, it has been discovered that the agrarian structure is inefficient mainly because of the skeweddistribution of operational holdings, difference in farm sizes and level of mechanization, land fragmentation, paucity of irrigation water and provision of creditfacilities. The analysis suggested that the level of inefficiency can be reduced to a greater extent by eliminating disparities of operational holdings. Significant reformative approachof land reform is proposed towards this end. The adoption of mechanization and provision of credit extension canalso help to rebate this inefficiency.
Association Among Fertility Behaviour in Women Using Various Contraceptive Methods (A Case Study of Pakistan)
(Department of Economics, University of Peshawar. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, 1998-08) Ijaz Majid; Supervised by Dr. Naeem ur Rehman Khattak
The data collected by the National Institute of Population Studies, Islamabad in Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey, 1990-91 was analysed and investigated in this study. The data was in the computer base of the Institute consisting of 6,611 eligible women. The main emphasis ofthe data was on, background characteristics, reproductive history, knowledge and use of contraception, pregnancy and breast feeding, vaccinations and the health of children, marriages, family size preferences and husbands background. The main objective of this study was to_ investigate statistical methods, which can be used. for the analysis of such data, so as to identify various variables that can affect the fertility pattern of the women using various types of contraceptive methods. This in turn will lead to identify variations among different methods of contraception that will have an effective control on the fertility of a woman. For this purpose, different methods of analysis previously being used and recommendedin the literature were studied and new methods were developed for analysis of this data so as to identify the variables of importance. Since the main purpose of the study was to investigate an association amongthe Fertility Behaviour in Women using different methods of Contraception/fertility regulation methods. The initial part of the study contained an elementary data analysis of the data. This was done to find out the a sources of variation in the data, and to investigate the important variables affecting the fertility behaviour of the women. The current trend of rapid population growth in Pakistan calls for serious thinking and action. If it is allowed to continue with the prevailing growth rate, it will adversely effect the socio-economic development of the country as with the current rate we are heading towards what is called population bomb. If it explodes, it would devastate the economic and social fabric of our country. Hence,it is the time that these important variables effecting the fertility behaviour of a woman should be taken care off. In this study along with simple analysis of cross tabulation and summary statistics computed, regression analysis was also used. The method of regression analysis was used in two steps. First, simple regression models were analysed. Second, in order to see the effect of a variable on the dependent variable, new regression models were formulated and analysed. This method helped us in pinpointing the important variables and finally developing a model of choice. Further Analysis of Variance was used to see the overall significance of regression models. The important variables as identified in the present study were age of the respondent, education,living number of children, family planning practices and attitudes, spousal communication and husbands level of education etc. Finally one o fthe major conclusions derived from the present study wasthat there was a strong association among the fertility behavior of the women using various contraceptive methods and hence its effects on the numberf born. Besides this, the study indicated that modern contraceptive methods are more effective as compared to traditional methods.
IMPACT OF MICRO FINANCE ON WOMEN EMPOWERMENT: A CASE STUDY OF SELECTED DISTRICTS OF KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA
(Department of Economics, University of Peshawar. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, 2014-04) Syed Nabahat; Supervised by Dr. Naeem ur Rehman Khattak
From the time of its birth Pakistan is facing turmoil and deprivation in all aspects of life, keeping it from coming at par with the rest of the world. For over six decades Pakistan has made little progress due to the unfair division of resources and gender discrimination. The burden of this scantiness was put intensely on the women folk. Women play a vital role in domestic functions. Their role should be enhanced by empowering them financially. Microfinance has been found as a main antidote to empower women and eradicate poverty. The focus of the study has been on micro-credit, given to the poor women to help them to initiate business, in order to increase their income which in the long run will empower them. Main objectives of the study were to determine the impact of microfinance on the self confidence and decision making power of women in the study area. For this purpose a sample of 235 women who had taken credit from the two major microfinance institutions National Rural Support Program (NRSP) and Sarhad Rural Support Program (SRSP) were randomly selected from three districts (Peshawar, Mardan, Swabi) of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Information regarding demography and other variables were collected through structured questionnaire. In order to understand the complexity of the phenomenon of women empowerment, a structured interview schedule was also conducted. Zifferent statistical instruments i.e. descriptive analyses, bar charts, bivariate and multivariate analyses were employed to present the information scientifically, and to build up the relationship between the various explanatory variables and dependent variable. The analysis specifies that the response about joining microfinance was very encouraging. Beneficiaries of microfinance felt positive influence of microfinance on their level of self-confidence, family life, husband and wife relations, respect from in-laws, and decrease in household violence. Their decision making ability regarding income and expenditure, children education and health, had also increased. Women’s own perception after joining microfinance was also very positive. The study further concludes that personal and socio-political empowerment of women is greater in district Peshawar, while their economic empowerment is greater in district Swabi. Similarly the decision making ability of women is greater in district Mardan. It is suggested that the process of available credit should be made easier and outreach of microfinance sector should be expanded to other far-flung areas of the country.
FOREIGN CAPITAL INFLOWS AND ITS IMPACT ON MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES IN PAKISTAN 1981-2010
(Department of Economics, University of Peshawar. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, 2010) Safia Gul; Supervised by Dr. Naeem ur Rehman Khattak
Foreign capital inflows (FCI) help under-developing countries to cover the gap of twin deficits in current and capital accounts by increasing the size of their Gross Domestic Products (GDP), improving the quality and quantity of technological domestic means of production, creation of employment, transformation of industrial base for exports orientation and imports substitution to gain favorable Terms of Trade (TOT) and Balance of Payments (BOP) position by changing the composition of current and capital accounts. Pakistan has strong potential if the determinants involved in the transformation of the agrarian structure of the economy to mechanized industrialization improve to induce more foreign investors in capital intensive projects by creating financial co-relation with domestic investors as the country has low access in the international resource markets of invisible items. Foreign Inflows of portfolio investments direct enhances foreign exchange reserves. Aim of this study to explain various factors involved to have more FCI and its impact on macroeconomic indicators like, Growth, Domestic Investment, Inflation and Trade Balance. Trend and Regression Analysis applied to evaluate thirty years secondary data collected from various sources. This Study focused on two Determinants of FCI i.e. 'Foreign Direct Investment' (FDI) and 'Foreign Portfolio Investment' (FPI). For checking interdependency of variables in six separate models are specified taking different macro-economic variables. Before analyzing the Time-Series data, Augmented Ducky Fuller test (ADFT) used to check stationarity of the data of those variables in models. For checking Non-Stationary data by Unit-Root showed that all the variables are not stationary at level but stationary at the first difference. For the analysis of variation in variables and finding long-run relationship, "Johansen’s Co-integration-Test” applied. For detection of short-run impacts of FCI on the selected variables in models "Vector-Error-Correction-Model" (VECM) used. Moreover, for examination of the inter relationship in the FCI with economic growth, domestic investment, consumption and inflation; Granger Causality Test (GCT) applied. For deriving the results, SPSS and E-views utilized. Major findings of the study showed that GDP growth rate positively and significantly affects (0.147) FCI and negatively affected (-0.033) by the inflation rate in the country. FCI affected positively (0.195) by the interest rate. Exchange rate is positively related (0.027) to the FCI. Domestic investment affects positively (0.545) FCI. GDP growth rate positively affects (0.157) FDI. FDI negatively affected (-0.001) by the inflation rate of the country. FDI is affected positively (0.015) by the interest rate of the country. Exchange rate positively related (0.030) FDI. Domestic investment affects positively (0.295) FDI. Exports affect FCI positively (0.008). GDP growth rate positively affected (1.083) by FDI in the country. GDP growth rate positively affected (0.021) by the persistent rise in the general price level (inflation) of economy. Gross-Domestic-Product (GDP) growth rate affected negatively (-0.080) by the interest rate of the country. FDI positively affects (1.479) the domestic investment of the country. Domestic investment positively affected (0.284) by FCIs. Inflation rate is positively affected (0.157) by the foreign direct investment to the country. FCI affect the inflation rate positively (0.467). FCIs affect the balance of trade negatively (-0.127). The coefficient is significant at 5% levels of significance. Balance of trade positively affected (0.127) by the GDP growth rate of the country. The balance of trade affected positively (0.237) by the relative prices of imports. Balance of trade negatively affected (-0.132) by the relative prices of exports. Foreign exchange reserves and exchange rate affects the balance of trade negatively. Similarly, as the currency depreciates, the exports become less expensive and hence the demand for exports increases in the international markets. Increase in exports lead to improve balance of trade. Incentives should be given to domestic investors to boost GDP and exports. The study revealed that inflation rate; imports volume affects the FCI negatively and has insignificant impact. So the government should control inflation through monetary/fiscal policy and reduce the imports of un-necessary items through restrictions or imports substitution and export orientation.
THE REVIVAL OF SICK INDUSTRIAL UNITS IN PAKISTAN (A CASE STUDY OF GADOON AMAZAI INDUSTRIAL ESTATE N-W.F.P) (1988-2000)
(Department of Economics, University of Peshawar. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, 2004) Rukhsana Javed; Supervised by Ijaz Majid
Industrialization plays a vital role in economic development of a country. But unfortunately from the last few years this sector is facing quite a lot of problems in the country. The number ofsick industrial units is increasing. At present in Pakistan the numberof sick industrial units has gone over 4,000 units. The average growth rate of large scale manufacturing which was 8.2 during 1980, reduced to 1.6 in 1999-2000. The increasing incidence of industrial sickness is certainly a matter of deep concern not only for the industrialists, shareholders and creditors but also for the society at large. Gadoon Amazai industrial estate (GAIE) in NWFP is also seriously affected by this industrial sickness. This industrial estate was established in 1986 by governmentofPakistan to stop poppy cultivation to provide job opportunities to the affected people, to gencrate income for the country to earn foreign exchange and to bring this backward area at par with other developed areas of the country. GAIE with subsequent policies, after enjoying an unprecedented boom among industries for about two years, discovered itself in hot waters. Industrialists started leaving the industrial estate and billions of investments were wasted. People lost jobs, government revenues and industrialists “will” to do business. The purpose of the study was to carry out a comparative economic analysis of the situation before the establishment of GAIE and after its establishment. The specific objectives ofstudy were: To evaluate the role of industrial establishment in Gadoon Amazai area in promoting the socio-economic conditions, to analyse industrial policy of the government of Pakistan regarding Gadoon Amazai Industrial Estate, To identify the causes of sickness of the industrial units in Gadoon Amazai Industria! Estate, to asses the impact ofsick units on the inhabitants ofthe area, to suggest measures for formulating policy for the probable revival of sick industries in Gadoon Amazai, to identify main causes of sickness and to make suggestions for probable revival of these sick units. Two questionnaires were constructed, one addressed to the house hold sector and the other to industrialists. The questionnaires were filled in with the help of face-to-face interviews. The questionnaires addressed to the household sector collected data on house structure, facilities within the house and the socio-economic conditions of the people of the area. All types of facilities were compared before and after the establishment of GAIE. The data collected from the industrialists regarding the reasons of sickness and suggestions for the revival of industries were studied. Findings of the study were summarized andit was concluded that the establishment of GAIE had improved the socio economic conditions of the people of the area and the main reasons of sickness were withdrawn of the incentives. Other reasons were: distance from sea port, dependence on some of imported raw material and machinery, non availability of workshops orno facility ofrepair for damaged machinery, non availability of skill labour, poor infra structure, non availability of natural gas, high electricity charges etc. the sample industrialists recommended certain suggestions for the revivaloftheir sick units, among which the most important was continuation of incentives other recommendations were; provision of training facilities, workshopfacilities, improvement ofinfra structure, provisions of gas facilities and establishment of consultancy offices at GAIE to solve the problems of the industrialists. As Gadoon Amazai industrial estate had improved the socio economic conditions of the people of the area, the recommendations for probable revival ofsick industrial units must be honoured.

Browse

Recent Submissions