CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE IN PAKISTAN: A Case Study of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (1980-2010)
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Date
2012
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Department of Economics, University of Peshawar. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan
Abstract
The world is facing climate challenges in the form of flash floods or harsh droughts, intense thunder storms or occasional rains, swamped plains or barren land, water assimilation or water scarcity. The aim of this research is to study the impact of climate changing events on Pakistan in general and its agriculture sector in particular. It will help in better copping against the future climate changing incidents. The intense rains of 2010, which resulted in a sever flood, is one of the climate change event in Pakistan.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa was among the provinces affected by the flood event of 2010. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa by ecological landscape can be divided into three zones or regions i.e. the Northern, the Central and the Southern regions. This study is an attempt to measure the climate variations in the three climate zones of the province, over the thirty year period (1980-2010). The environmental trend analysis results of the study shows that Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as a whole has experienced the climate change impacts in terms of rise in mean temperature from 0.3°C to 1.2°C and average rainfall from11mm to 15mm over the thirty years span.
The climate intense event of 2010 impact was observed in terms of decreased agricultural production of Kharif and rabi crop. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa agricultural statistics showed a decline of Kharif (maize) crop from 1880 kg/hector in 2008-09 to 1783 kg/hector in 2009-10 and Rabi (wheat) production of 1565 Kg/hector in 2008-09 was reduced to 1520 Kg/hector in 2009-10.
The climate changing impacts on agricultural sector is accessed by analyzing the two seasoned crops i.e. Rabi and Kharif of the province. The economic regression analysis is performed in this respect. The findings of the study shows that climate factors does effects crop production. Climate impacts on rabi crop of the province are more distinct than the kharif crop. The regional regression results depicts a positive impact of climate change on the northern part of the province whereas a negative impact on crop production is seen due to the elevated temperatures and untimely rainfalls.
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Citation
Babar, S. (2012). CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE IN PAKISTAN: A Case Study of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (1980-2010) (Doctoral dissertation, University of Peshawar).